君主论-the prince(英文版)-第20章
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being able in any way to withstand it； and yet；though its nature be such； it does not follow therefore that men； whenthe weather bees fair； shall not make provision； both with defencesand barriers； in such a manner that； rising again； the waters may passaway by canal； and their force be neither so unrestrained nor sodangerous。 So it happens with fortune； who shows her power where valourhas not prepared to resist her； and thither she turns her forces whereshe knows that barriers and defences have not been raised to constrainher。And if you will consider Italy； which is the seat of these changes； andwhich has given to them their impulse； you will see it to be an opencountry without barriers and without any defence。 For if it had beendefended by proper valour； as are Germany； Spain； and France； eitherthis invasion would not have made the great changes it has made or itwould not have e at all。 And this I consider enough to say concerningresistance to fortune in general。But confining myself more to the particular； I say that a prince may beseen happy to…day and ruined to…morrow without having shown any changeof disposition or character。 This； I believe； arises firstly from causesthat have already been discussed at length； namely； that the prince whorelies entirely upon fortune is lost when it changes。 I believe alsothat he will be successful who directs his actions according to thespirit of the times； and that he whose actions do not accord with thetimes will not be successful。 Because men are seen； in affairs that leadto the end which every man has before him； namely； glory and riches； toget there by various methods； one with caution； another with haste； oneby force； another by skill； one by patience； another by its opposite；and each one succeeds in reaching the goal by a different method。 Onecan also see of two cautious men the one attain his end； the other fail；and similarly； two men by different observances are equally successful；the one being cautious； the other impetuous； all this arises fromnothing else than whether or not they conform in their methods to thespirit of the times。 This follows from what I have said； that two menworking differently bring about the same effect； and of two workingsimilarly； one attains his object and the other does not。Changes in estate also issue from this； for if； to one who governshimself with caution and patience； times and affairs converge in such away that his administration is successful； his fortune is made； but iftimes and affairs change； he is ruined if he does not change his courseof action。 But a man is not often found sufficiently circumspect to knowhow to acmodate himself to the change； both because he cannot deviatefrom what nature inclines him to； and also because； having alwaysprospered by acting in one way； he cannot be persuaded that it is wellto leave it； and； therefore； the cautious man； when it is time to turnadventurous； does not know how to do it； hence he is ruined； but had hechanged his conduct with the times fortune would not have changed。Pope Julius II went to work impetuously in all his affairs； and foundthe times and circumstances conform so well to that line of action thathe always met with success。 Consider his first enterprise againstBologna； Messer Giovanni Bentivogli being still alive。 The Veianswere not agreeable to it； nor was the King of Spain； and he had theenterprise still under discussion with the King of France； neverthelesshe personally entered upon the expedition with his accustomed boldnessand energy； a move which made Spain and the Veians stand irresoluteand passive； the latter from fear； the former from desire to recover allthe kingdom of Naples； on the other hand； he drew after him the King ofFrance； because that king； having observed the movement； and desiring tomake the Pope his friend so as to humble the Veians； found itimpossible to refuse him soldiers without manifestly offending him。Therefore Julius with his impetuous action acplished what no otherpontiff with simple human wisdom could have done； for if he had waitedin Rome until he could get away； with his plans arranged and everythingfixed； as any other pontiff would have done； he would never havesucceeded。 Because the King of France would have made a thousandexcuses； and the others would have raised a thousand fears。I will leave his other actions alone； as they were all alike； and theyall succeeded； for the shortness of his life did not let him experiencethe contrary； but if circumstances had arisen to gocautiously； his ruin would have followed； because he would never havedeviated from those ways to which nature inclined him。I conclude therefore that； fortune being changeful and mankind steadfastin their ways； so long as the two are in agreement men are successful；but unsuccessful when they fall out。 For my part I consider that it isbetter to be adventurous than cautious； because fortune is a woman； andif you wish to keep her under it is necessary to beat and ill…use her；and it is seen that she allows herself to be mastered by the adventurousrather than by those who go to work more coldly。 She is； therefore；always； woman…like； a lover of young men； because they are lesscautious； more violent； and with more audacity mand her。CHAPTER XXVIAN EXHORTATION TO LIBERATE ITALY FROM THE BARBARIANSHAVING carefully considered the subject of the above discourses； andwondering within myself whether the present times were propitious to anew prince； and whether there were the elements that would give anopportunity to a wise and virtuous one to introduce a new order ofthings which would do honour to him and good to the people of thiscountry； it appears to me that so many things concur to favour a newprince that I never knew a time more fit than the present。And if； as I said； it was necessary that the people of Israel should becaptive so as to make manifest the ability of Moses； that the Persiansshould be oppressed by the Medes so as to discover the greatness of thesoul of Cyrus； and that the Athenians should be dispersed to illustratethe capabilities of Theseus： then at the present time； in order todiscover the virtue of an Italian spirit； it was necessary that Italyshould be reduced to the extremity she is now in； that she should bemore enslaved than the Hebrews； more oppressed than the Persians； morescattered than the Athenians； without head； without order； beaten；despoiled； torn； overrun； and to have endured every kind of desolation。Although lately some spark may have been shown by one； which made usthink he was ordained by God for our redemption； nevertheless it wasafterwards seen； in the height of his career； that fortune rejected him；so that Italy； left as without life； waits for him who shall yet healher wounds and put an end to the ravaging and plundering of Lombardy； tothe swindling and taxing of the kingdom and of Tuscany； and cleansethose sores that for long have festered。 It is seen how she entreats Godto send someone who shall deliver her from these wrongs and barbarousinsolencies。 It is seen also that she is ready and willing to follow abanner if only someone will raise it。Nor is there to be seen at present one in whom she can place more hopethan in your illustrious house； with its valour and fortune； favoured byGod and by the Church of which it is now the chief； and which could bemade the head of this redemption。 This will not be difficult if you willrecall to yourself the actions and lives of the men I have named。 Andalthough they were great and wonderful men； yet they were men； and eachone of them had no more opportunity than the present offers； for theirenterprises were neither more just nor easier than this； nor was Godmore their friend than He is yours。With us there is great justice； because that war is just which isnecessary； and arms are hallowed when there is no other hope but inthem。 Here there is the greatest willingness； and where the willingnessis great the difficulties cannot be great if you will only follow thosemen to whom I have directed your attention。 Further than this； howextraordinarily the ways of God have been manifested beyond example： thesea is divided； a cloud has led the way； the rock has poured forthwater； it has rained manna； everything has contributed to yourgreatness； y
